Can AAP break the Maharashtra political juggernaut? 

The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) mammoth success in Punjab state assembly elections is bound to kickstart a debate- will the party focus on Maharashtra, if not in rural parts of the state but at least in big urban conglomerates such as Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Pune and Nashik? At least for now, it has fueled a debate over the limitations that a present lot of regional players have on expanding their base- in and outside Maharashtra. 

While discussing the results of the five state elections on Thursday, a seasoned BJP leader, active in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), seeing AAP’s success in Punjab, was asking, “If AAP decides to field candidates in all the constituencies in the municipal elections, who’s vote share they would cut into?” A streak of anxiety was visible on his face. 

Whether the AAP decides to take the plunge into state affairs is a different question but they may be forced to take interest in Maharashtra affairs. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal will have to pay heed to the demands of the AAP supporters in Maharashtra. 

Before the party entered the fray in Punjab and Goa, there was a rumor in political circles that the BJP had taken a calculated decision not to oppose AAP in Delhi. Because the Delhi voters prefer AAP over Congress and to keep the latter out of power BJP decided to maintain a distance.   

Similarly, BJP seems to have decided to make some restrained moves in Punjab letting APP take on Congress as well as BJP’s erstwhile ally Akali Dal. Moreover, the party did not let Cpt Amrinder Singh go on his way and the rest is history. BJP’s limitations in Punjab exposed the party’s failure to project a credible face from the Sikh community as its leader.  

In Goa too, AAP played a spoilsport by taking sizable votes reducing chances of the Congress candidates in a big way- indirectly helping BJP. 

Will AAP enter into Maharashtra?

Now, it will be interesting to see if any attempts are made to pump up AAP’s spirits in Maharashtra- or the party goes on its own to expand its base. The BJP leaders in Maharashtra may not want AAP in Mumbai for now. Because it may eat into BJP’s vote share. Besides, Shiv Sena and NCP make political moves based on the pride of Marathi and interests in Maharashtra. Both the parties have been more or less successful in setting a narrative that BJP was anti-Maharashtra and thinks about the interests of Gujrat by using the central government. 

Speaking about Maharashtra, the state politics revolves around the four major players- Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena, and BJP – and they have established a firm grip developing their pocket boroughs using caste, religion as the base. Besides they nurture their vote banks through cooperative units such as sugar factories and banks, educational institutions apart from fomenting the caste-based, region-based, and language-based aspirations. 

In the present structure, these four players may not want a new player to enter the present scenario. These four players got nervous when Raj Thackeray led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) made giant leaps during the general elections to Lok Sabha and State Assembly in the year 2009. 

Major parties pursuing their interests

Each political party stands for a chance to rule the state single-handedly, but it fails due to the complacency factor which came after the prominent leaders established their bases through cooperative units or empires of educational institutions. BJP was no exception to this as its leaders too became beneficiaries of the important policies adopted by the ruling parties. Many of its leaders entered into the business of sugar factories, distilleries, spinning mills, banks, and educational institutions. Preciously due to this, the BJP lost one of the biggest opportunities to register its biggest ever win to assume power on its own in 2014. Then the party could win 122 seats- 23 seats short of a simple majority in the state assembly. The failure forced BJP to align with Shiv Sena to run the government. 

Politics of understanding

All said and done, the political understanding prospered after 1999, pursuing political agendas in self-marked spaces. The four parties have different strategies to further their political interests in each region and at the district level. The BJP and Congress, while battling to retain control over Vidarbha, have different strategies when it comes to fighting elections in North Maharashtra and Marathwada. The NCP strategy is different in the Vidarbha region- where it has self-imposed limitations but in Western Maharashtra in general and in Pune particularly the role of BJP changes towards the Sharad Pawar-led party. It was the scene before the 2014 general elections. 

For the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) the NCP changes its strategy and keeps the field maximum open for the Shiv Sena. But it fights close battles in Nashik. Accordingly, Shiv Sena mellows down in Pune district, particularly in Baramati and a few parts of Western Maharashtra. Apart from Aurangabad, Beed, and more recently in the Nanded district, the BJP has different plans on how to take on Congress in Marathwada. Even Congress took a minimum interest in the Beed district which was once single-handedly controlled by late Gopinath Munde. BJP paid it back to Congress by limiting its political activities when it came to running the show in Latur district in general and against the late Vilasrao Deshmukh’s family in particular. 

The Shiv Sena helps generously to whoever helps them to retain political control over Mumbai, Thane, and Konkan belt. Previously due to this Sena never took a keen interest in cooperatives run by Congress and NCP. 

State losing a lot

As a result of this political camaraderie, the state has missed debates over huge scams that took place in the state-run projects and the civic bodies. It’s only after the 2019 elections, some old cases are being unearthed and investigated. The allegations are made as if scams are taking place for the first time in the BMC. 

This atmosphere of political understanding serves the political interests of bigwigs. During the latter part of the decade of 2000, people had high hopes for the MNS. In its foray into state politics, the MNS had disturbed calculations of Shiv Sena and BJP in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and won 13 seats in the state assembly elections- held during the same year. People who were hopeful about the MNS soon got disappointed with the political flip-flops over the issues of public concern. 

MNS failed to raise spirits

Raj Thackeray, the MNS chief has not been able to justify the way he prefers to run his unit. He does as much politics as he prefers. In other words, Thackeray’s politics is based on his likes, dislikes, and preferences. That is to say, he speaks out and takes interest in whatever subject according to his personal choice. He selects his associates to raise issues only if he prefers and keeps doors ajar for those willing to leave the party. He also prefers to go on tour and address rallies only if he feels. Such leaders are rare in politics. 

Almost every leader prefers to be the savior and protector of a certain caste or group. If someone from another community raises the voice of injustice, such leaders rarely react. By propagating caste-based politics such leaders pay little heed to be responsible leaders under the democratic setup. If questions are raised over their decisions or allegations of misdeeds are made, such leaders use cards of castes and communities, as a shield of protection. 

The cooperative movement has been the established base of state politics as it helps to maintain a firm grip over the rural vote banks. Bigger the network, firmer the vote bank has been the mantra of state politics. Even if the Enforcement Directorate (ED) has now taken lead in unearthing certain cases of the privatization of the cooperative sugar units and BJP raising objections over it, the first voice of dissent was raised by noted social crusaders such as Anna Hazare, Medha Patkar, and ex MLA Manik Jadhav. 

The second pillar of politics is state-funded educational institutions. Even as the state spends a few thousand crores every year, hardly any discussion takes place on the quality of education being imparted. Such institutions have become the base to further political interests. Despite huge grants given by the state along with land parcels to set up the shop, hardly any social commitment is shown by offering education to the poor and needy. 

Real estate is the third-largest base of politics in the state. No one here is an opponent of anyone but an amiable friend. Therefore, key issues concerning people are rarely allowed to be discussed in public. A very amicable approach is taken to the difficulties of the construction sector. Even if the quality of construction comes under question, mishaps of building collapse killing people takes place, unauthorized constructions, encroachments are noticed, hardly any serious attention is given by adopting stringent measures to avoid recurrences. On the contrary, such incidents are allowed to go into oblivion. 

The major parties continued to play a supportive role for each other leaving it for the masses to decide who should be given a verdict to run the state- at least till 2019. At times, they even criticize each other, level allegations so that people would not notice the political understanding. One may not believe but a tacit understanding over a few seats of personal interest is arrived before going for the major elections. 

Whether this political picture of the state is going to change even after a party like AAP decides to enter into the scene is a million-dollar question. No matter how much interest AAP takes in Maharashtra’s politics, it depends a lot on whom the party relies on and who is going to lead their unit. Till then political class from Maharashtra should keep in mind the example of Punjab.