NDA Wants a New Ally, But Mahayuti Does Not…
With the Monsoon Session of Parliament just days away, the sudden discussion around the Delimitation Bill and the Women’s Reservation Bill, coupled with speculation over whether the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) will align with the NDA, cannot be dismissed as mere coincidence. At the same time, the opposition from Ajit Pawar-led NCP leaders to such a move, and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ categorical statement that no new party would be inducted into the Mahayuti alliance, have added further complexity to the political situation.
A few days ago, NCP state president and MP Sunil Tatkare addressed the media. When questioned on the possibility of Sharad Pawar’s NCP joining the Mahayuti, his body language and response clearly suggested that Ajit Pawar’s NCP was opposed to such a development. Earlier, while in Delhi for a meeting on the Narmada water-sharing issue, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis had categorically stated that there would be no new entrant into the Mahayuti. Yet, political signals now suggest that Sharad Pawar’s NCP may support the ruling NDA in Parliament, thereby helping the government secure passage of the contentious Delimitation Bill. This has created an unusual political equation—while Mahayuti may not want a new constituent in Maharashtra, the NDA in Delhi appears keen to have Sharad Pawar’s support.
Reports have also emerged suggesting that NCP president and Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar and her son, MP Parth Pawar, are opposed to any merger of the two NCP factions. Interestingly, the issue of reunification has resurfaced after having virtually disappeared. Leaders from Sharad Pawar’s NCP had maintained that the issue had ended with Ajit Pawar’s demise. Yet, if the discussion continues to gather momentum, it clearly indicates that some leaders and legislators in both factions still have an interest in the idea. The BJP does not appear to consider the issue untouchable, as it has never officially opposed a merger. The BJP’s leadership has undoubtedly assessed whether the NCP should be allowed to grow and, if so, to what extent under the current political circumstances.
The NCP was brought into the Mahayuti primarily to keep a check on Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Even today, the BJP needs the NCP as a counterweight to the Shiv Sena.
The BJP leadership in Delhi is determined to secure the passage of the Delimitation Bill, the revised Women’s Reservation Bill, and eventually the constitutional amendments required for the “One Nation, One Election” proposal. All of these require a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Once that majority is secured, the possibility of early general elections cannot be ruled out. In Maharashtra, the government has already announced a ₹48,000 crore electricity bill waiver following the farm loan waiver, and has also constituted a committee to examine the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code. The speed with which these measures are being pursued naturally raises speculation about the possibility of early elections.
NCP MP Supriya Sule’s remarks on the Delimitation Bill appear to send a conciliatory signal to the NDA; they also make it clear that she does not wish to alienate the INDIA bloc. Congress state president Harshwardhan Sapkal’s response to this is equally significant. He has said that his party will take an appropriate decision regarding her stand and that the Congress position remains clear. Comments by Sapkal, who is known as close to Rahul Gandhi, are crucial and carry considerable weight with the Congress leadership in Delhi.
It is said that a meeting of senior Congress leaders was held in Delhi a few days ago, where discussions reportedly took place on whether Sharad Pawar’s NCP should merge with the Congress. Sapkal is believed to have strongly opposed the proposal. In the presence of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, and other senior leaders, he reportedly argued that the NCP could adopt any political position, including one favourable to the BJP. After he elaborated on the reasons why such a merger should be avoided, senior Congress leaders are said to have endorsed his stand.
Sapkal currently finds himself battling opposition both within and outside his party. His aggressive political style has unsettled many. Political circles are abuzz with speculation that some Congress colleagues, allegedly encouraged by the ruling establishment, are attempting to engineer his removal. Yet during the Baramati Assembly by-election, the Congress high command clearly demonstrated his importance. When efforts were made to persuade the Congress candidate to withdraw, senior leaders in Delhi made it clear that the final decision rested with the Maharashtra Congress leadership, thereby reinforcing Sapkal’s authority.
Against the backdrop of discussions over the role Sharad Pawar’s NCP may play in Delhi, Sapkal’s position assumes greater significance. If the NCP eventually supports the NDA, the Maha Vikas Aghadi may effectively be reduced to just the Congress and the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray-led Shiv Sena.
However, Sharad Pawar remains one of India’s most astute political strategists, and even at this stage of his career, he remains constantly alert. He is fully aware that many of his MLAs and MPs are struggling to retain their constituencies and are not receiving government funds on time. He also knows that some of them are dissatisfied and that the BJP has been actively reaching out to them.
His challenge is therefore twofold: to support the BJP where necessary without severing ties with either the INDIA alliance or the Maha Vikas Aghadi, while simultaneously presenting such support as being in the larger public interest rather than a political realignment.
Since Sharad Pawar’s NCP is opposed to joining the Mahayuti as an alliance partner, another formula is reportedly under discussion—that individual leaders from his party may instead join Ajit Pawar’s NCP or the BJP. If senior leaders gradually leave Sharad Pawar’s camp one by one, the party’s independent existence could come under serious strain. This, many believe, is also part of the BJP’s political strategy. By fragmenting Sharad Pawar’s traditional vote bank, the BJP hopes that at least a portion of it will eventually shift towards the Mahayuti, particularly in its own favour.
In recent times, Sharad Pawar himself appears to have reduced his focus on expanding the party. His public engagements are now largely confined to meetings of institutions such as the Rayat Shikshan Sanstha, the Yashwantrao Chavan Pratishthan, the Vasantdada Sugar Institute, and invitations arising out of long-standing personal relationships. This gradual withdrawal from active organisational expansion also appears to be working to the Mahayuti’s advantage.
Rohit Pawar has made his position clear, stating that even if others from his party join the BJP, he will not. His recent political stance suggests that he is unlikely to join either the BJP or Ajit Pawar’s NCP. If two or three more MLAs adopt a similar stand, Sharad Pawar’s NCP could face a serious internal crisis. It has also become increasingly evident that Rohit Pawar does not share particularly close relations with Jayant Patil. Perhaps for this reason, Patil chose not to react after meeting Chief Minister Fadnavis, and he has remained silent on the latest political developments as well.
Sharad Pawar’s NCP faces multiple challenges. The party has also attempted to build closer ties with Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. In Satara Zilla Parishad politics, Shinde’s Shiv Sena explored an alternative political experiment. Had it succeeded, Shinde could have established a fresh political equation within Sharad Pawar’s traditional strongholds. However, the BJP recognised the implications in time and ensured that the Satara experiment did not succeed.
As things stand today, Sharad Pawar’s NCP continues to grapple with a fundamental political dilemma: whether to align with the NDA in Delhi while remaining outside the Mahayuti in Maharashtra, or to chart an entirely different course.
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